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Center for Nonlinear Studies |
Modes of climate variability such as variations in El-Nino, mid-latitude storms, the Gulf Stream, and the thermohaline circulation have a significant human impact, yet their response to climate change is poorly captured by climate models. Empirical stochastic models of climate variability have been extensively developed and, despite their simplicity, have similar predictive skill to detailed dynamical models. Completely separately, the past decade has seen considerable progress in the area of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, where the emphasis has been on microscopic, typically biological and chemical, systems. In this talk we review stochastic climate models, describe the recent developments in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, apply and extend the statistical mechanics to climate fluctuations.
Host: Robert Ecke, T-CNLS