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Tuesday, November 20, 2007
2:00 PM - 3:00 PM
CNLS Conference Room (TA-3, Bldg 1690)

Seminar

ESSENCE: Ensemble Simulations of Extreme Weather Events under Nonlinear Climate Change

Henk Dijkstra, Professor of Dynamical Oceanography
Utrecht University

The ESSENCE project, carried out within the Distributed European Infrastructure for Supercomputing Applications (DEISA), aims at a better understanding of forced and internally generated climate variability. A relatively large (17 member) ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES-1b scenario (over the period 1950-2100) has been carried out using the ECHAM5-OM1 (MPI) model. This standard ensemble is accompanied by a set of 4 experimental ensembles that address the effect of parameter sensitivities. In this presentation an overview of the project will be given and results from (i) the standard ensemble, focussing on the forced signal versus internal variability, and (ii) the special ensembles, in particular the ensemble where a collapse in the Atlantic meridional overturning is simulated, are presented. Focus will be on the changes in statistics of extreme events in temperature, precipitation and wind over Western Europe and the physical processes responsible for these changes.