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Center for Nonlinear Studies |
Since smallpox has already been eradicated, statistical studies of previous outbreaks provide important insights for the detailed control strategies. Clarifications of basic transmission patterns are also needed in simulation studies using mathematical models to obtain valid and sound results for preparedness program. Here I present original strategies to elucidate basic information regarding the intrinsic dynamics of smallpox (i.e., how smallpox spreads). I also show my recent statistical results of parameterizing the epidemiologic features of smallpox control. Specifically, the presentation covers the following topics: 1. Statistical analysis of the intrinsic dynamics of smallpox (e.g., incubation period distribution and case fatality). 2. Transmission potential of smallpox: Spatial spread of the disease and its impact on temporal dynamics. 3. Estimation of the duration of vaccine-induced immunity. 4. Estimation of the infectiousness relative to clinical-stage of smallpox. 5. Estimation of the effectiveness of post-exposure vaccination by statistical analyses of available evidence. Partly supported by research project in the European Union, the results are shared with researchers and military and governmental officers engaged in bioterrorism preparedness issues.
Host: Gerardo Chowell-Puente