Thursday, September 27, 20122:00 PM - 3:00 PMT-DO Conference Room Bldg 123, Room 121|
Market impact, overlapping portfolios and financial contagion
Fabio CaccioliSanta Fe Institute
By means of a stylized model, we discuss the role of market impact and portfolio overlaps as a mechanism for stress propagation in financial networks. We present results of different stress tests, and in particular we consider the response of the system to (i) the presence of a toxic asset, (ii) the failure of a financial institution. Our analysis shows that the probability of financial contagion is a non-monotonic function of both the average diversification of financial institutions and market crowding, while more leverage increases the overall instability of the system. Moreover, the system is shown to exhibit a robust yet fragile'' behavior, with situations where the probability of contagion is very small but the whole system is shut down if contagion happens.
Host: Aric Hagberg, CNLS, 667-1444, email@example.com