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Center for Nonlinear Studies |
There are important gaps in our current understanding of the influenza virus behavior. The spatial and temporal dynamics of influenza epidemics and pandemics is poorly understood, in particular how influenza viruses circulate between and within countries, why virus activity is seasonal, and why some influenza seasons have much higher mortality and morbidity impact than others. Analysis of historical influenza epidemics and pandemics can help understand spatial and temporal patterns and prepare for future outbreaks. A variety of statistical and mathematical modeling of vital statistics in various countries and at different geographical scales (country, state, city) will be presented, together with data on virus laboratory surveillance and genetic sequences. In particular, latitudinal variations in the seasonality of influenza-related mortality will be studied, as well as contact patterns responsible for regional disease transmission throughout the US, and inter-annual variability in the transmissibility of influenza viruses. Analyses will focus on the 1918 and 1968 pandemics in Europe, North America and Australasia, the 1951 epidemic in the UK and Canada, and seasonal epidemics in the last 3 decades in the US and Brazil.
Host: Gerardo Chowell-Puente