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Center for Nonlinear Studies |
Patients at risk for complications of influenza are commonly treated with antiviral medications, which however also could be used to control outbreaks. The adamantanes and neuraminidase inhibitors are active against influenza A, but avian influenza (H5N1) is resistant to oseltamivir and swine influenza (H1N1) to the adamantanes (but see postscript). To explore influenza medication strategies (pre-exposure or prophylaxis, post-exposure/pre-symptom onset, and treatment at successive clinical stages) that may affect evolution of resistance (select for resistant strains within or facilitate their spread between hosts), we elaborated a published transmission model and chose parameters from the literature. Then we derived the reproduction numbers of sensitive and resistant strains, peak and final sizes, and time to peak. Finally, we made these results accessible via user-friendly Mathematica notebooks.
Host: Ming Zhang