What is the most competitive sport?
E. Ben-Naim and S. Redner
We present an extensive statistical analysis of the results of all
sports competitions in five major sports leagues in England and the
United States. We characterize the parity among teams by the variance
in the winning fraction from season-end standings data and quantify
the predictability of games by the frequency of upsets from game
results data. We introduce a mathematical model in which the underdog
team wins with a fixed upset probability. This model quantitatively
relates the parity among teams with the predictability of the games,
and it can be used to estimate the upset frequency from standings
data. We propose the likelihood of upsets as a measure of
competitiveness.
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