Parity and Predictability of Competitions
E. Ben-Naim, F. Vazquez, and S. Redner
We present an extensive statistical analysis of the results of all
sports competitions in five major sports leagues in England and the
United States. We characterize the parity among teams by the variance
in the winning fraction from season-end standings data and quantify
the predictability of games by the frequency of upsets from game
results data. We introduce a novel mathematical model in which the
underdog team wins with a fixed upset probability. This model
quantitatively relates the parity among teams with the predictability
of the games, and it can be used to estimate the upset frequency from
standings data.
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