Simple mathematical models to understand influenza’s complex evolutionary dynamics

Professor Katia Koelle, Duke University

Simple mathematical models to understand influenza’s complex evolutionary dynamics

Many of today’s most formidable pathogens are RNA viruses whose rapid antigenic evolution allows them to escape from host immunity and thereby to infect previously exposed individuals. Effectively controlling the population dynamics of these viruses will therefore require a clear understanding of the ecological and molecular processes driving their evolutionary dynamics. Here, I will first review the distinct evolutionary dynamics of three flu types/subtypes currently circulating in our population: influenza A (H3N2), influenza A (H1N1), and influenza B. I will then present a simple epidemiological model that, when coupled to a model of sequence evolution, can reproduce the range of phylogenetic tree topologies characteristic of these three variants. I end with a discussion of our need for a synthetic approach to understanding the evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving viral pathogens, and outline our proposed research towards this goal.